I have used below code for training and validation. It gives decent result but I don't know the code to forecast n periods ahead (like 30/50 days ahead) using the trained model.
GitHub Link for the code with data output is here.
Import the libraries:
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import math
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import Dense,Dropout,Conv1D,Bidirectional
from keras.layers import LSTM
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
import tensorflow
np.random.seed(1)
tensorflow.random.set_seed(1)
Load the univariate time series data and normalize the values:
dataframe=pd.read_sas('train.sas7bdat')
dataframe['Datetime']=pd.to_datetime(dataframe['Datetime'],format='%d%b%Y:%H:%M:%S')
dataframe.set_index('Datetime',inplace=True)
data=dataframe
#filter input data according to datetime i.e: 01th May 2020
dataset=data[data.index>='2021-05-01 00:00:00']
# Replcae null value with previous 15 minute value
dataset.ffill(axis ='rows',inplace=True)
dataset.shape
def normalize_cols(df,cols):
"""Scale the values of each feature
according to the columns max value"""
data = df.loc[:,cols]
for col in cols:
scaler = lambda x: x / data[col].max()
data[col] = data[col].apply(scaler)
print(data[cols].head())
return data[cols].values
features = df.columns.values # columns to train model on
X = normalize_cols(df,features)
Turn each signal into a labeled dataset:
import tensorflow as tf
from tensorflow import keras
from tensorflow.keras import layers
window_size = 15 #15 # num. days per training sample
batch_size = 64 # num. of samples per epoch
buffer_size = 1000 # num of samples in memory for random selection
split_time = 400 # where to split the data for training/validation
forecast_length=10*24*4
def window_dataset(series, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer):
"""Funtion to turn time series data into set of sequences
where the last value is the intended output of our model"""
ser = tf.expand_dims(series, axis=-1)
data = tf.data.Dataset.from_tensor_slices(series)
data = data.window(window_size + 1, shift=1, drop_remainder=True)
data = data.flat_map(lambda w: w.batch(window_size + 1))
data = data.shuffle(shuffle_buffer)
data = data.map(lambda w: (w[:-1], w[1:]))
return data.batch(batch_size).prefetch(1)
x_train = X[:split_time]
x_test = X[split_time:]
print(f"Training data shape: {x_train.shape}")
print(f"Validation data shape: {x_test.shape}")
train_set = window_dataset(x_train,window_size,batch_size,buffer_size)
keras.backend.clear_session()
Choose and connect the model components:
# 1D convolution layers
conv1 = layers.Conv1D(
filters=60,kernel_size=15,strides=1,
padding="causal",activation="relu",
input_shape=[None,len(features)])
conv2 = layers.Conv1D(
filters=60,kernel_size=5,strides=1,
padding="causal",activation="tanh")
# Bidirectional LSTM layers
lstm1 = layers.Bidirectional(layers.LSTM(50,return_sequences=True))
lstm2 = layers.Bidirectional(layers.LSTM(20,return_sequences=True))
# Model construction
inputs = layers.Input(shape=(None,len(features)))
x = conv1(inputs)
x = lstm1(x)
x = lstm2(x)
x = conv2(x)
x = layers.Dense(60,activation='relu')(x)
x = layers.Dropout(.1)(x)
x = layers.Dense(1,activation='tanh')(x)
outputs = layers.Lambda(lambda x: 25*abs(x))(x)
#outputs = layers.Lambda(lambda x: 1*abs(x))(x)
# SGD optimizer and Huber loss
optimizer = keras.optimizers.SGD(lr=1e-5, momentum=0.9)
loss = keras.losses.Huber()
model = keras.Model(inputs=inputs,outputs=outputs)
model.compile(optimizer,loss,
metrics=["mae"])
model.summary()
"""
### Train model
"""
epochs = 100
history = model.fit(train_set, epochs=epochs, verbose=1)
print(f"Model trained for {epochs} epochs")
Inspect training results:
def model_forecast(model, X, window_size):
"""Takes in numpy array, creates a windowed tensor
and predicts the following value on each window"""
data = tf.data.Dataset.from_tensor_slices(X)
data = data.window(window_size, shift=1, drop_remainder=True)
data = data.flat_map(lambda w: w.batch(window_size))
data = data.batch(32).prefetch(1)
forecast = model.predict(data)
return forecast
train_window = [i for i in range(split_time-window_size)]
forecast = model_forecast(model,x_train,window_size)
import seaborn as sns
plt.figure(figsize=(8,5),dpi=120)
sns.lineplot(train_window,forecast[:-1,1,0].reshape(-1),label='Forecast') #forecast[:-1,1,0]
sns.lineplot(train_window,X[:split_time-window_size].reshape(-1),label='actual_load')
Make predictions on test data:
val_window = [i for i in range(split_time,len(df)-window_size)]
forecast = model_forecast(model,x_test,window_size)
plt.figure(figsize=(8,5),dpi=120)
sns.lineplot(val_window,forecast[:-1,1,0].reshape(-1),label='Forecast')
sns.lineplot(val_window,X[split_time:-window_size].reshape(-1),label='actual_load')