Promql when a PromQL + duration would be firing

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I was wondering if it's possible to acheive with PromQL:

Given an promql, and duration produce a graph of when it was active for the duration. This is so you could retroactively see when a promQl would have produced alerts.

I thought doing something like this:

count_over_time(
   ($PROMQL)[$DUR:15s]
) >= ($DUR / 15s)

But it misses this case:

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