Sudden spikes in SQL connections causing timeouts

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For the last week I've been experiencing intermittent mini-outages lasting between 1-3 minutes every few hours. We're using .NET Framework 4.7.2 and EF6 on top of Azure SQL for years, and it has served us well. Starting about 10 days ago however, we're seeing these sudden bursts of SQL connections being opened. These sudden bursts of SQL connections are causing timeouts on any new requests, causing our website to be inaccessible. For context: our platform sees about 1.1 million unique visitors every single day and traffic is always very stable and predictable with no sudden bursts, even during the mini outages traffic is perfectly normal.

The exception we get during these bursts is ' Timeout expired. The timeout period elapsed prior to obtaining a connection from the pool. This may have occurred because all pooled connections were in use and max pool size was reached.'

We use a combination of StructureMap with Nested Contaienrs to inject our DbContext in controllers and services, and in legacy parts of the codebase we religiously consume our DbContext with usings. We never manually open a connection (so no SqlConnections floating around)

Azure metrics (Succesful connections last 48 hours)

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Azure SQL usage charts (24 hours)

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The spikes here don't align with the outages so don't seem suspicious to us.

These bursts automatically resolve themselves within minutes. If I'm fast enough while our platform alerts notify us, I can confirm using 'exec sp_who' that there are indeed an excessive amount of idle connections (status=sleeping, cmd=AWAITING COMMAND) to our database. We are constantly running on 4 similarly specced VM's, and when this burst happens, the idle connections don't originate from one single machine.

We've been scratching our heads for the last week especially since the way we've been using EF6 and SQL Server has been a very smooth ride for several years. We obviously scoured over every single change we've made to the platform codebase over the last 2 weeks to spot anything that seems suspicious, but sadly that hasn't resulted in anything yet. We're also diligently squashing and tuning all our heavier un-optimized queries in a bid to fix this, but they've been serving the website fine for years and this really only started about 10-12 days ago.

Anyone who can give some insight into what might cause such very sudden bursts; any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you in advance

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