What are the best normalization technique and LSTM structure for forecasting an output with jumps (outliers)?

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I have a time series forecasting case with ten features (inputs), and only one output. I'm using 22 timesteps (history of features) for one step ahead prediction using LSTM. Also, I apply MinMaxScaler for input normalization, but I don't normalize the output. The output contains some rare jumps (such as 20, 50, or more than 100), but the other values are between 0 and ~5 (all values are positive). In this case, it's important to forecast both normal and outlier outputs correctly so I dont want to miss the jumps in my forecasting model. I think if I use MinMaxScaler for output, most of the values will be something near the zero but the others (outliers) will be near one.

  • What is the best way to normalize the output? Should I leave it without normalization?

  • What is the best LSTM structure to handle this issue? (currently, I'm using LSTM with relu and Dense layer with relu as the last layer so I the output will be a positive value). I think I should select activation functions correctly for this case.

forecasting lstm keras time-series normalization
1 Answers

I think first of all, you should decide on a metric to measure performance. For example, do you want to use MAE or MSE? Or some other metric you decide based on the task at hand. For example, you may tolerate greater error for the "rare jumps", but not for the normal cases, or vice versa. Once you are decided on the error metric, ideally, you should set that as the cost function that the LSTM network would be minimizing.

Now the goal would be to minimize the desired error metric you set. If this was a convex problem, the scaling of the output will not matter. But we now that this is not the case with the complex deep learning architectures. What this means is that while minimizing the cost function with gradient decent, it might get stuck in a local minimum with a very delayed convergence. In this case, normalizing the output might help. How?

Assume that your output has a mean value of 5. With last layers parameters initialized around zero and a bias value of zero (i.e. the linear transformation of relu), the network needs to learn that the bias should be around 5. Depending on the complexity of the network this could take some epochs. However, if you normalize the data, or initialize the bias at 5, then your network starts with a good estimate of the bias and thus converges faster.

Now back to your questions:

  1. I would at least make the output zero mean and use Dense layer with linear output.

  2. The architecture you have seems fine, you can try stacking 2-4 LSTM layers if you think your input has complex time dependencies.

Feel free to update the OP with the the code and the performance you get and we can discuss what else can be improved.

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